April Showers

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April 2025 Commodity Market Snapshot

Key Points:

• Early 2025 commodity markets lean bearish due to weak global demand and trade fears, especially with China's slowdown.

• Gold shines as a safe-haven; grains and soft commodities face volatility from supply and trade uncertainties.

• Next 60 days: U.S. tariffs and spring weather will drive agriculture markets, with Chinese demand and fertilizer costs as key factors.

Short-Term Sentiment (10 Days):

• Wheat: Sideways to up (80% confidence)

• Canola: Sideways (70% confidence)

• Barley: Sideways (80% confidence)

• Risk Level: High, neutral global sentiment

Canola Outlook:

• Bullish Drivers: Weather issues, strong export/biodiesel demand, speculative buying near $700/tonne.

• Bearish Risks: Better global supply, fading demand from trade tensions, macroeconomic pressures.

• Farm Tips: Old crop at $650; new crop futures-only at $700 (Jan 2025). Brace for growing season volatility.

• Price Forecast:

  • 30 Days: $625-$700, likely dipping to $650 (75% confidence).

  • 90 Days: $600-$725, sideways to up at $700/MT (70% confidence).

Wheat Outlook:

• Bullish Drivers: Russian weather issues, Black Sea tensions, global stocks down 3.3% to 258M tonnes.

• Bearish Risks: Strong U.S. harvests, easing conflicts, weaker Chinese demand.

• Farm Tips: Sell old crop at yearly highs; consider futures-only for new crop on rallies. Expect profitable pricing.

• Price Forecast:

  • 30 Days: $5.60-$6.09, sideways to up (70% confidence).

  • 90 Days: $5.50-$6.50, sideways to up at $6.25/BU (80% confidence).

Corn/Barley Outlook:

• Bullish Drivers: Weather risks, Chinese/EU demand, speculative trading.

• Bearish Risks: Oversupply from U.S. (396M tonnes corn) and Australia, slowing demand, profit-taking.

• Farm Tips: Barley flat at $305/MT; watch corn futures at $4.55 (buy) or $5.25 (sell).

• Price Forecast:

  • 30 Days: $4.55-$5.25, sideways to down (75% confidence).

  • 90 Days: $4.40-$5.25, sideways to up at $5.25/BU (70% confidence).

Weather Watch (April 2025):

• U.S.: Rain aids corn/soybeans in Ohio/Mississippi; Southwest drought hits wheat.

• Canada: East favorable, dry Prairies threaten wheat/canola.

• South America: Dry Argentina/Brazil may cut corn/soybean yields.

• Europe: Warm EU weather boosts North but stresses Southeast wheat/barley.

• Australia: Wet North/East aids wheat/barley; dry South limits yields.

• Black Sea: Low moisture in Russia/Ukraine could tighten wheat supply.

Bottom Line: Volatility looms, but canola and wheat offer rally potential. Stay alert to weather and trade shifts for smart pricing moves.

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