Weekly Ag Market Wrap-Up: September 13-19, 2025

• Canola: Production estimate raised by 0.46% to 20.03 million tonnes, driven by yield gains in Saskatchewan and Alberta; declines linked to advancing harvest pressure and spillover from weaker comparable oils.

• Wheat HRS (Minneapolis): Stocks reports showed steady inventories, with market upticks from reduced French corn crop offsetting U.S. yield pressures.

• CPS (Kansas): Trends weaker amid broader wheat complex, with U.S. export projections holding firm; local Prairie spring wheat progress at 26% harvested influenced sentiment.

• Canadian Barley: Official output forecast up 1.0% year-over-year to 8.2 million tonnes, boosted by 237,000 tonnes from prior estimates; gains attributed to stronger yields in Alberta and Saskatchewan.  Trade expects barley crop to be much larger than official number.

• Yellow Peas: Harvest 75% complete with 2.6 million metric tonnes available; massive carryout projected due to high yields shocking farmers, leading to demand slump.

• Corn: U.S. production up 72 million bushels to 16.8 billion, with export forecasts rising 100 million bushels; X posts flagged Taiwan delegation eyeing purchases amid declining crop conditions by 1% good/excellent.

• Soybeans: Down on lower yields, with U.S. crop ratings slipping 1% good/excellent; X buzz around harvest pressure and stalled demand, though Brazil exports increasing provided some offset.

• Soybean Oil: Mixed trends with U.S. exports elevated but easing slightly; X users noted narrowing discounts versus palm oil, influenced by strong domestic demand.

• Palm Oil: Malaysia inventories up for sixth month, narrowing spreads to soybean oil by $136.36 per tonne month-over-month; X posts linked this to weather-driven supply builds affecting global veg oil dynamics.

Fundamentals That Changed This Week

StatCan's September estimates provided key lifts: canola up 91,000 tonnes, barley up 237,000 tonnes, and wheat up 3.03% overall, reflecting improved yields from August rains in parts of the Prairies. Trade news dominated, with China extending its canola probe to March 2026 while snapping up Australian supplies, pressuring Canadian exports. U.S. corn exports hiked 100 million bushels, and soybean crop ratings dipped 1%, signaling tighter balances. Globally, France cut corn output, and Vietnam bought Canadian canola meal amid cheap supplies. These shifts stemmed from harvest progress (Alberta at 22% complete) and weather variability, easing some dryness but raising flood risks elsewhere.

What Changed from Last Week – Fundamentals and News

From last week, StatCan's updates marked the biggest shift, raising canola by 91,000 tonnes and barley by 237,000 tonnes on better Prairie yields, contrasting prior dryness concerns (about 100 words). U.S. corn exports jumped 100 million bushels, while soybean ratings fell 1%, reflecting harvest pressure.

What to Think About Over the Weekend

Reflect on local harvest timing amid Alberta/Saskatchewan dryness. Consider global weather: La Nina may bring floods/droughts, impacting soy and corn yields. Weekend X chatter suggests watching U.S. Fed rate cuts for currency effects on exports. Ponder farm-level storage strategies if pea carryout swells, and scout for cattle on-feed trends heading into fall. Use downtime to assess risk—strong production could buffer volatility if trade resolves positively.

Grain Marketing Opportunities or Thoughts

With harvest advancing, look for spots to forward contract canola or barley to local elevators .

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