Weekly Ag Market Wrap-Up: September 28- OCT 3, 2025

Key Movements in Agricultural Commodities (Over the Last Week)

Harvest advancements across the Canadian Prairies accelerated amid warm, dry conditions and regional storms, pushing Saskatchewan to 84% overall completion (up 16 points week-over-week, lagging five-year averages by eight points) and Alberta to 89% for major crops like wheat, barley, and canola (a 12-point gain), though lingering wet areas raised quality concerns. Global supply builds intensified pressures, with U.S. quarterly stocks for corn and wheat exceeding expectations, production forecasts for corn and sorghum rising 72.7 million and 10.7 million bushels (adding 2.6 million metric tons to feed grain availability), and funds liquidating heavily across grains and oilseeds amid trade uncertainties. Philippine rice imports surged over 3.3 million tons January-August, heightening export competition for Canadian volumes, while wheat and coarse grain projections trended higher globally.

• Canola:

  • Harvest completion advanced to 71% in Saskatchewan (20-point weekly gain) and 72% overall in Manitoba, benefiting from dry weather, but slower exports—627,400 tonnes year-to-date through week seven, trailing last year by 1.05 million tonnes—intensified local elevator backups.

  • AAFC's September estimates pegged 2024-25 production at 20.028 million tonnes with exports at 7 million tonnes (down 2.331 million year-over-year), though analyst views suggest 2025/26 could top 21 million tonnes driven by favorable yields, tempered by China's reduced import forecasts at 3.10 million tonnes.

  • China's smaller-than-reported rapeseed crop may boost demand for Canadian supplies, potentially easing congestion at local buyers if trade disputes resolve, while potential quality dips in wetter Prairie regions could affect acceptance.

• Wheat HRS (Minneapolis):

  • U.S. spring wheat receipts rose to 31 cars amid harvest momentum, while early Canadian non-durum exports outpaced last year but faced U.S. competition in markets like Indonesia; Saskatchewan wheat harvest hit 92%, signaling ample new crop availability that weighed on sentiment.

  • AAFC projected all-wheat production at 36.624 million tonnes and exports at 27 million tonnes, with durum output rising year-over-year on better Prairie yields, though elevated global supplies and higher U.S. inventories curbed upside.

  • European dryness capped broader rebounds, influencing world totals and cross-commodity flows for Canadian equivalents.

• CPS (Kansas):

  • Global wheat projections trended upward with U.S. inventories surprising above estimates at elevated levels, adding supply-side weight and limiting rebounds for Canadian soft wheat flows.

  • Black Sea and European heat/dryness constrained some production, but overall world coarse grain forecasts edged higher, influencing dynamics for CPS equivalents amid stable Prairie harvest advances.

  • Tariff adjustments on U.S. goods impacted cross-border costs, potentially shifting local buyer preferences.

• Canadian Barley:

  • Harvest neared completion at 94% in Saskatchewan (strong weekly gain) and 84% overall, creating immediate supply buildup and short-term storage challenges at local feedlots while feed demand held steady.

  • AAFC noted year-over-year production increases of 1%, driven by better yields and incoming new crop volumes that pressured market momentum.

  • Diversification efforts targeted Mexico, the third-largest global malting barley buyer, as a hedge against reliance on markets like China.

• Yellow Peas:

  • Canadian exports showed resilience, running ahead of last year's pace despite tariffs, with high yields surprising farmers and projecting massive 2025/26 carryout; Southeast Saskatchewan producers advanced significantly amid stable pulse acreage.

  • U.S. imports of organic yellow peas reached 14,248 tonnes in 2024, but only 1,103 tonnes from Canada, highlighting limited market penetration with minor global supply tweaks remaining neutral.

• Corn:

  • U.S. harvest progressed to 18% complete (slightly behind expectations but accelerating with open weather), reversing early trade-talk gains as quarterly stocks exceeded estimates and production rose 72.7 million bushels, influencing Canadian feed availability.

  • Canadian markets remained sideways amid harvest pressures and global surplus vibes, with weakening dollar impacts on imported feed components potentially delaying adjustments by 6-8 weeks and affecting cross-border flows.

  • Biofuel policies projected to drive future demand, with U.S. supply growth supporting Prairie livestock operations.

• Soybeans:

  • U.S. harvest reached 19% (falling short of pace but buoyed by trade optimism with China), with stocks below estimates bolstering export potential amid pivots to Argentine origins; Canadian August oilseed crush data showed mixed signals.

  • Global imports via U.S. East Coast ports—2.67 million metric tons in 2023—highlighted vulnerability to disruptions like strikes, while weakening dollar may hike imported material costs over 6-8 weeks.

  • Broader fund selling shifted oilseeds to net shorts during harvest expansion.

• Soybean Oil:

  • Crush demand remained mixed as Asian buyers favored South American sources, contributing to oilseed sentiment shifts and broader fund selling toward net shorts.

  • U.S. forecasts held steady at elevated levels, with global commodity divergences hinting at upward trends for food inputs and potential inflationary pressures for oils.

  • European labeling rules limited dominance compared to U.S., where it comprises 85% of "vegetable oil" in processed foods.

• Palm Oil:

  • Malaysian inventories declined month-on-month but stayed above last year, stabilizing trade flows amid robust export demand and slower output.

  • South American planting watches added balance, with interconnected resource trends suggesting potential inflationary signals;

  • Stronger soyoil and positive demand lifted sentiment.

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