Global Ending Stocks – USDA WASDE September 2025

Why I Focus on Global Ending StocksI stick with global ending stocks because that’s what really drives price direction. Local/U.S. numbers matter, but wheat, corn, and soybeans are traded worldwide. If stocks are tight globally, buyers compete harder and futures respond—no matter what one country’s balance sheet looks like. For Prairie growers, it’s those global shifts that end up flowing back into local bids.

Commodity Breakdown

Corn

• Ending Stocks: 281.4 MMT (↓ 1.1 from August)

• Bullish:

  • U.S. exports running hot (record 3.0 billion bu.) on strong competitiveness and early demand.

  • Foreign production cuts (EU, Russia, Serbia) tightening the balance outside the U.S.

  • Global coarse grain output trimmed by 0.9 MMT.

• Bearish:

  • Record U.S. crop at 16.814B bu. (largest area since 1933) more than offsets yield drop.

  • Higher U.S. use (16.1B bu.), but sheer supply keeps a lid on upside.

  • Global trade picture is neutral with mixed import/export changes.

Soybeans

• Ending Stocks: 124.0 MMT (↓ 0.9 from August)

• Bullish:

  • Global production trimmed (425.9 MMT, down 0.5) with cuts in India, EU, Serbia.

  • Global crush cut 1.1 MMT, mostly India/Argentina.

  • Higher soybean meal trade into the EU giving demand a lift.

• Bearish:

  • Stronger exports out of Argentina, Russia, Canada offset U.S./Ukraine declines.

  • U.S. production slightly higher at 4.3B bu. plus bigger domestic crush.

  • U.S. ending stocks building to 300M bu. as export pace drags.

Wheat

• Ending Stocks: 264.1 MMT (↑ 4.0 from August)

• Bullish:

  • U.S. exports bumped to 900M bu. (Hard Red Winter demand strong).

  • Higher consumption (+5.0 MMT, esp. EU/Canada feed).

  • Russia/Ukraine exports pulled back, tightening trade flows.

• Bearish:

  • Bigger global supply overall (+9.0 MMT to 1,078.6 MMT).

  • U.S. ending stocks at 844M bu.—lower vs. August but still a shade above last year.

  • Farm price forecast cut $0.20 to $5.10/bu.

World Grains Snapshot

Category	Global Production	Global Supply	Global Use	Ending Stocks	MoM Change
Wheat	809.3 MMT	1,078.6	814.5	264.1	↑ 4.0
Coarse Grains	1,573.0 MMT	~2,127.0*	1,573.0*	281.4 (corn)	↓ 1.1 (corn)
Rice	527.0 MMT	729.5	542.2	187.3	↑ 0.6
Total Grains	~2,909.3 MMT	~3,935.1	~2,929.7	~732.8	Net ↑ 3.5

*Coarse grains balance estimated; includes beginning stocks (~554 MMT).

Takeaway:

·  Corn: Heavy. Big U.S. crop keeps the lid on rallies, even with stronger exports. Market feels more about managing downside than chasing upside.

·  Soybeans: Balanced. Global stocks are tighter, but U.S. carryout is building. Rangebound until South America’s crop story takes shape.

·  Wheat: The wild card. Stocks ticked higher, but export strength, tighter trade flows, and seasonal risks (weather/Black Sea) make it the one with the real rally shot into winter.

Why Wheat Could See the Biggest Price Jump Come November–January

If you skimmed September’s WASDE, wheat stands out over corn and beans heading into that Nov–Jan stretch of the 2025/26 season. Futures already perked up after the report, and the chatter is building. Here’s why wheat looks like the one with the edge:

The Setup (Quick and Dirty)

• Use is outpacing production. Global wheat use is pegged at 814.5 MMT, while production is only 809.3 MMT. That imbalance matters—stocks may look bigger month-to-month, but demand is chewing through supply.

• Exports are heating up. U.S. shipments were raised 25 million bu. to 900M bu., the strongest Hard Red Winter sales pace in years. Globally, trade rose to 214.7 MMT, but with Russia and Ukraine pulling back, North America has more room to run.

• Kansas futures have upside. USDA dropped the season-average U.S. farm price to $5.10, but that’s just harvest pressure. Kansas HRW futures are already sniffing higher, and if weather or exports tilt bullish, they’ve got room to pop.

What Could Spark the Nov–Jan Run?

• Weather: Plains wheat is rolling the dice as usual—patchy fall rains so far, and one cold snap could change the story fast.

• Black Sea: Russia’s softening, Ukraine’s exports throttled. Any more hiccups and global buyers look elsewhere.

• Dollar & demand: A weaker U.S. dollar and steady export demand could fuel Kansas futures further.

Bottom Line

Corn’s heavy with record U.S. supplies. Soybeans are stuck sideways until South America’s crop is known. But wheat’s different: tight stocks, stronger exports, and demand running ahead of production give it the clearest rally window into winter.

For Prairie growers, that’s your payday potential—watch the Oct. 9 WASDE for confirmation, and keep an eye on Kansas March ’26 futures as a benchmark.

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