Weekly Ag Market Wrap-Up: Key Moves for Canadian Farmers (Aug 23-29, 2025)

A quick look at what drove commodity markets this week, fresh trade developments, weather updates, and weekend thoughts—tailored for Prairie growers.

What Moved the Market This Week? (August 23–29, 2025)

• Canola: Prices Dropped significantly. Futures softened due to spillover pressure from a weaker U.S. soy complex and a stronger Canadian dollar, though crop outlook improved with model-based estimates showing higher yields despite reduced planted area; harvest progress advanced amid dry conditions in the Prairies.

• Wheat HRS (Minneapolis): Traded mixed but with a bearish tilt from abundant global supplies, including Russia's crop estimate lifted to 86 million tonnes; U.S. export inspections surged 140% week-over-week to support some stability, while dry Prairie weather aided maturity.

• Wheat CPS (Kansas): Eased amid broader wheat weakness and heavy French stocks at 20-year highs; global supply pressure persisted with Argus boosting Russia's output view, though U.S. Plains basis weakened as elevators prepared for corn inflows.

• Canadian Barley: Prices Dropped significantly.  Mixed Prairie conditions; with higher yields, as dry weather in Saskatchewan and Alberta pushed crop development forward.

• Yellow Peas: Prices Dropped significantly. Remained balanced despite competitive pressures; early harvest reports noted strong yields, with Canadian exports aided by steady demand from Middle East and EU buyers amid India's import policy clarity.

• Corn: Gained ground on stronger export inspections up 24% week-over-week and EU imports hitting 35-year highs due to drought; U.S. crop estimates from LSEG at 185.4 bushels per acre provided a slight offset to surplus narratives.

• Soybeans: Weakened as China avoided U.S. cargoes, turning to Argentina and Uruguay; inspections fell over 3 million bushels week-over-week, though LSEG nudged U.S. crop estimate to 117 million tonnes amid eastern dryness concerns.

• Soybean Oil: Pressured by EPA silence on small refiner exemptions and softer palm oil; competition eased slightly, but river levels and demand shifts kept sentiment mixed.

• Palm Oil: Softened overall, with Malaysian exports showing minor adjustments; global vegetable oil supplies influenced canola and soy oil indirectly amid trade flow pivots.

• Cattle in Alberta: Strengthened amid tight supplies and a malicious pest impacting trade; inventories held firm, with improved pastures and steady U.S. export demand supporting the market.

Fundamentals shifted due to updated crop outlooks from Statistics Canada, stronger inspections for corn and wheat signaling demand resilience, and weaker soy flows highlighting trade frictions. News like Russia's raised wheat estimates added supply pressure, while dry Prairie weather accelerated harvest but raised quality risks—these drove choppy, weather-sensitive trading.

Key Trade Developments (Last Two Weeks)

• Canada concluded a trade mission to the Indo-Pacific to promote agri-food, involving groups like Cereals Canada and Soy Canada, aiming to strengthen ties and diversify markets amid ongoing tariff challenges.

• Launched consultations on the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act, engaging agriculture stakeholders to ease supply chains and address disputes under agreements like CUSMA.

• Removed retaliatory tariffs on certain U.S. goods compliant with CUSMA, providing relief for cross-border flows in grains and livestock while steel and autos remain contentious.

• B.C. supported food and beverage exporters to expand markets, indirectly benefiting Prairie commodities through enhanced provincial trade initiatives.

Major Weather Events

• Locally in Alberta and Saskatchewan: Heat warnings issued with daytime highs of 29-33°C and overnight lows of 10-16°C, potentially stressing late crops; a dry stretch aided maturity but heightened drought risks in pockets.

What Changed from Last Week? (Fundamentals & News) Unlike last week's focus on ProFarmer tour yields (corn at 188.8 bu/acre) and storm damage in Western Canada, this week emphasized dry Prairie conditions accelerating harvest and stronger export inspections (corn up 24%, wheat up 140%). Soy inspections dropped amid China avoiding U.S. origins, contrasting prior short-covering rallies. Statistics Canada's crop outlooks showed canola yields up but area down, while Russia's wheat estimate rose to 86 MMT, adding supply weight versus prior tariff-driven volatility. Weather shifted from storms to heat/dryness, easing some quality concerns but pressuring late development.

What to Think About Over the Weekend. Monitor U.S.-China trade minister talks for signals on soy and canola flows, especially with inspections showing demand gaps. Review Statistics Canada data for barley and peas adjustments amid dry maturity push. Consider global wildfire effects on logistics and air quality for fall operations. Stay tuned for Labor Day weekend market closures and early September export sales reports to gauge non-China demand strength (about 90 words).

Grain Marketing Opportunities or Thoughts

• For canola, watch local elevator basis levels amid softer futures—consider forward contracts if harvest quality holds, hinging on soy oil demand.

• On HRS and CPS wheat, explore sales to nearby buyers if inspections sustain, but hold off rallies until post-harvest clarity; leverage any short-covering.

• Yellow peas offer spots to market to local exporters targeting Middle East, capitalizing on yield strength before full harvest pressure.

• Overall, focus on farm-gate deals with elevators for quick turnover, prioritizing storage management as bins fill.

One positive note: Surging export inspections for corn and wheat highlight resilient global demand, offering a buffer against surplus pressures for Canadian growers.

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