Weekly Ag Market Wrap-Up: Key Moves for Canadian Farmers (Aug 29-Sept 5, 2025)

A quick look at what drove commodity markets this week, fresh trade developments, weather updates, and weekend thoughts—tailored for Prairie growers.

You all farmed hard, and it paid off this year! Barley and wheat harvest is well underway. Barley yields are excellent, but the big crop has flooded the market and pushed prices down. Wheat yields have been above average, though June dryness kept them from being a true bin buster. Canola in many areas is about three weeks away from combining, and it looks like yields will be well above average.

Expect harvest pressure to be very strong this year. From both a fundamental and technical perspective, I anticipate some recovery starting around November.

What Moved the Market This Week? (August 29 – September 5, 2025)

·  Canola: Stabilized with Statistics Canada projecting 19.9 million tonnes, up 3.6% on 5.7% higher yields despite a 2% drop in seeded area. Harvest progress reached 83–94% across the Prairies, though verticillium stripe and blackleg in Manitoba raised quality concerns.

·  Wheat HRS (Minneapolis): Canadian yields are above average but not exceptional. Gained stability as U.S. harvest neared 80% complete, with protein at 14.2% (12% mb) and test weight at 61.4 lb/bu. Dry conditions in Montana and North Dakota boosted yields, though recent rains created some color risk.

·  Wheat CPS (Kansas): Canadian yields are above average but not exceptional. Held steady with U.S. harvest winding down; test weight averaged 60.0 lb/bu. Recent rainfall aided 2026 planting, though global supply pressure persisted.

·  Canadian Barley: Outstanding yields, with many reports of 100+ bu/ac. Balanced by mixed Prairie conditions; dry weather helped push yields higher, but quality risks grew as global stocks fell to 18 million tonnes—a 42-year low.

·  Yellow Peas: Strong yields, with many reports of 80+ bu/ac. Wayne from Sylvan noted his peas ran 100 bu/ac. Competitive on strong early yields; exports to the Middle East and EU held steady, with 500,000 tonnes shipped to China in 2024, supported by India’s policy clarity. Elevator bids have slipped below $8.00, with some as low as $6.50.

·  Corn: Strengthened as U.S. inspections hit 1.407 million tonnes weekly. EU drought drove imports to multi-decade highs, balancing U.S. crop estimates at 185.4 bu/ac.

·  Soybeans: Softened as China favored South American origin. U.S. inspections dropped to 473,000 tonnes weekly, with production estimates at 117 million tonnes amid eastern dryness.

·  Soybean Oil: Pressured by EPA delays and palm competition. U.S. biofuel use reached 1.045 billion lbs in June, up 2% month-over-month but still down 18% year-over-year.

·  Palm Oil: Firmed as Malaysian exports rose 10–15% to 1.42 million tonnes. India’s imports surged 16% to 993,000 tonnes ahead of festival demand.

·  Cattle (Alberta): Firm with tight supplies and 0.4% yearly inventory growth. Improved pastures supported demand despite lingering dryness.

Key Trade Developments (Last Two Weeks)

• Canada extended CUSMA consultations to streamline ag supply chains.

• Removed 25% surtax on select U.S. ag products under CUSMA, easing grain flows.

• China delayed its canola anti-dumping ruling by six months, opening talks.

• Announced $370M incentives for canola producers to boost output.

Major Weather Events

• Locally in Alberta/Saskatchewan: Dry heat with highs of 29-33°C aided harvest but risked drought; late crops stressed.

• Globally: U.S. Midwest frost (Sep 4) threatened corn/soy; EU drought boosted imports; Australian rains aided wheat.

What Changed from Last Week? (Fundamentals & News) Dry Prairies shifted to 80% HRS harvest vs. last week’s storm focus, with protein at 14.2% and yields up. Corn inspections hit 1.407 MMT, soy fell to 473,000 tonnes as China pivoted. Barley stocks dropped to 18 MMT, contrasting prior wheat surplus. China’s canola delay eased trade tension from last week’s tariffs. (96 words)

What to Think About Over the Weekend. Track U.S.-China talks for canola/soy signals with inspection gaps. Review StatsCan barley/pea data amid dry harvest. Monitor U.S. frost impacts on wheat basis. Prepare for Labor Day closures—plan storage as bins fill. Watch early September export sales for demand trends. (88 words)

Grain Marketing Opportunities or Thoughts

• Canola: Assess local elevator basis with strong yields; consider forward contracts if quality holds.

• HRS Wheat: Target regional elevator sales with robust protein and test weight; await post-harvest clarity.

• Yellow Peas: Market to local exporters for Middle East demand, leveraging yields.

• Overall: Focus on farm-gate deals with elevators for turnover, managing storage.

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