Weekly Market Wrap-Up for Canadian Farmers: August 9–15, 2025

What Moved the Market This Week? (August 9–15, 2025)

• Canola: Markets faced sharp declines after China imposed a 75.8% tariff on Canadian canola imports on August 12, 2025, tied to a trade dispute over Canadian tariffs on Chinese goods. The USDA’s report projected a slight increase in global oilseed stocks to 135.6 million tonnes, adding pressure despite Canada’s tight canola stocks (11.4 million tonnes, down 19.2% year-over-year). Export demand to non-Chinese markets like the EU weakened due to U.S. soybean oil competition.

• Wheat (HRS, Minneapolis): Hard Red Spring wheat markets held firm, supported by the USDA’s report showing tighter global wheat stocks at 260.1 million tonnes for 2025/26, down from 261.5 million tonnes in July. Canadian exports rose 0.9% to 10.8 million tonnes, driven by Asian milling demand. However, potential U.S. tariffs introduced uncertainty, though no new measures were implemented this week.

• Wheat (CPS, Kansas): Canadian Prairie Spring wheat softened slightly, mirroring U.S. Kansas markets, where the USDA reported a 2 million bushel drop in U.S. wheat production to 1.927 billion bushels, offset by a 25 million bushel export increase to 875 million bushels. Canada’s stable export outlook (10.8 million tonnes) cushioned losses, but U.S. crop conditions (75% good/excellent) limited upside potential.

• Canadian Barley: Markets remained balanced, with exports up 7.7% to 2.0 million tonnes, driven by Middle East demand. The USDA’s report noted tighter global coarse grain stocks at 282.5 million tonnes for 2025/26, indirectly supporting barley. Domestic feed use fell 8.7% to 6.5 million tonnes due to U.S. corn imports (1.8 million tonnes), and improved Alberta pasture conditions reduced feed demand.

• Yellow Peas: Markets stayed steady, with Canadian exports up 10% to 2.4 million tonnes

• Corn: The USDA’s report shocked markets with a record U.S. corn yield forecast of 188.8 bushels per acre, up 7.8 bushels from July, and production at 16.7 billion bushels, up 7% from July. This drove bearish sentiment, with global corn stocks at 282.5 million tonnes. Canadian corn stocks rose slightly to 11.3 million tonnes, but reduced imports (down 52% to December 2024) supported modest market gains.

• Soybeans: Markets softened as the USDA raised U.S. soybean yields to 53.6 bushels per acre but cut production to 4.292 billion bushels due to a 2.4 million-acre drop in harvested area. Global soybean stocks fell slightly to 124.9 million tonnes, but Canada’s stocks rose 10.9% to 4.2 million tonnes, adding pressure alongside Brazil’s 153 million tonne output.

• Soybean Oil: Declined due to global oversupply, despite U.S. soybean oil stocks remaining tight at 1.895 billion pounds. The USDA’s report showed stable U.S. crush demand (2.54 billion bushels), but competition from palm oil and Canada’s steady crush volumes (1.2 million tonnes) limited gains.

• Palm Oil: Malaysian palm oil markets rose, with exports up 8% to 1.3 million tonnes, driven by India and Southeast Asia. The USDA’s global oilseed stock increase to 135.6 million tonnes had minimal direct impact, but tightening vegetable oil supplies globally supported canola and soybean oil markets indirectly.

• Cattle (Alberta): Markets remained steady, with Alberta feedlots at 1.4 million head and Canadian cattle inventories at 12.1 million head. The USDA’s report had no direct cattle impact, but strong U.S. demand (exports up 5% to 0.7 million tonnes) and improved Prairie pasture conditions supported stability. The USDA’s record corn forecast could lower future feed costs.

Key Trade Developments (Last Two Weeks)

• China’s Canola Tariff: On August 12, 2025, China imposed a 75.8% tariff on Canadian canola imports, retaliating against Canada’s tariffs on Chinese goods. This threatens Canada’s largest canola market (4.4 million tonnes in 2024/25), pushing farmers to seek alternative markets like the EU and Middle East.

• U.S. Tariff Risks: Potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian wheat and canola persist, though no new actions were taken this week. USMCA protections have so far limited disruptions, but markets remain cautious.

• U.S. Export Gains: The USDA reported stronger U.S. corn and wheat exports, with corn exports projected at a record 2.9 billion bushels and wheat exports up 25 million bushels, increasing competition for Canadian exports.

What Changed from Last Week? (Fundamentals & News)

The USDA’s August 12 report introduced bearish pressure on corn and soybeans, with record U.S. corn yields (188.8 bushels/acre) and reduced soybean production (4.292 billion bushels) contrasting last week’s focus on tight canola supplies and stable wheat demand. China’s canola tariff, announced this week, shifted canola markets from supply-driven strength to trade-dispute weakness. Wheat markets remained steady, with tighter global stocks replacing last week’s focus on Canadian production forecasts. Yellow peas held firm, unchanged from India’s import policy clarity. Prairie weather stabilized, easing drought concerns, while Ontario’s wet conditions persisted.

What to Think About Over the Weekend

Assess canola export options to non-Chinese markets like the EU or Middle East due to China’s tariff. Monitor U.S. tariff developments, as they could impact wheat and canola exports. Consider locking in yellow pea contracts, leveraging India’s import window. Evaluate feed cost strategies for cattle, as the USDA’s record corn forecast may lower barley demand. Stay updated on China’s anti-dumping investigation timeline and its impact on canola export planning. Review input costs, with a weaker Canadian dollar raising import expenses.

Grain Marketing Opportunities

• Canola: Take profit

• Wheat (HRS & CPS): Hold for potential gains, as USDA’s tighter global wheat stocks (260.1 million tonnes) and Asian demand support high-protein varieties.

• Yellow Peas: Market aggressively, capitalizing on India’s duty-free import extension and Middle East demand.